Title: Seismic Probabilistic Risk Assessment of Power Energy Structures

Principal Investigator: Boris Jeremić

PI’s Affiliation: University of California, Davis

Co-PI at Tongji University: Zhiguang Zhou

Abstract:

Seismic Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) provides insights into the strengths and weaknesses of the design and operation of power energy structures. The goal of the project is to assess seismic probabilistic risk of two kinds of representative power energy structures, i.e. Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs) and liquid storage tanks, and research on some key problems correlated to the assessment. The contents include: (1) Shaking table test of a NPP model including dynamic Soil-Structure Interaction (SSI) system, study the seismic behavior of the NPP model on soft, moderate hard and rigid soil foundation. (2) Validation of SSI modeling and simulation using test data from available and planned SSI tests of the NPP Model. This validation is used to show that Realistic Earthquake Soil Structure Interaction (Real ESSI) Simulator System can properly and accurately account for dynamics of the Earthquake, the Soil/Rock and the Structure and their interaction. (3) Study the failure mechanisms of the NPP model and an isolated liquid storage tank model under strong earthquakes, establish seismic damage models, achieve quantitative assessment of overall structural damage and define performance levels for the two models. Using Monte Carlo (MC) simulation to obtain the probability of failure at different seismic intensity levels. (4) Carry out seismic fragility analysis for the two models; choose reasonable seismic hazard models and earthquake damage models to achieve seismic probabilistic risk assessment.

The research objective is for practice. The results obtained will provide strong support for establishing reasonable seismic design theories for power energy structures.